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February 2001, The Future of the Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC


The Democratic Republic of Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, the former Zaire, has been a very turbulent country in the previous years. The country, one of the largest in Africa, with an abundance of potential with large reserves of several kind of minerals and an even larger agricultural potential, has been thrown into a war with many facets. It is an internal conflict but can be as good described, because of the foreign involvement in the conflict, as an war between several African countries. Nearly all neighboring countries are involved in the conflict and support one of the many sides in the conflict. The war in the DRC has been called by some as the first African Great War, and they are right with this statement.
The conflict started rather small as Ugandan and Rwandan forces moved into the DRC, at that time still Zaire, with the objective to eliminate violent opposition groups which used the DRC as a homebase. Several Congolese opposition groups used these actions to start an insurgency to get rid of the much disliked dictator Sese Seko Mobuto. The much fractioned opposition could be united with rather dubious methods, many leaders disappeared, by Laurent Desire Kabila, Kabila became the new leader of the opposition which had become much more effective through the unification. With support of the Rwandan and Ugandan government and military the opposition movement was now able to take over power and dispose Mobuto.
Kabila became president with high expectations of the Congolese population, who expected an end to the decayed and rotten Mobuto government and the economic misery. Unfortunately Kabila was however not the salvation he promised to be. Kabila simply replaced the people but not the system and on the shortest possible of time span he could alineate his former allies, Rwanda and Uganda, by allowing and even supporting the Ugandan and Rwandan opposition movements in the DRC and by discriminating the Banyamulenge and other Tutsi descendants in the east of the country.
The ones united opposition quickly found refuge in the east of the country and started to fight the new regime in Kinshasa with support of Uganda and Rwanda. Essentially three major opposition movements and many more tribal groups came into existence since the second rebellion started.The three major organisations are the Mouvement pour la Liberation du Congo, MLC, the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratique-Mouvement Liberation, RCD-ML and the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratique-Goma, RCD-Goma The MLC is supported by Uganda and the RCD's are supported by Rwanda.
The situation worsened even further as Burundi which is involved in a some kind of civil war also has some opposition movements operating out of the DRC became involved in the conflict. Another enemy for Kabila and an supporter for the rebel movements.
The combined opposition, rebel movements, against Kabila could conquer large parts of the DRC and nearly the whole eastern side of the country is under their control. The opposition is however not united and the contradictions increased in time. The divisions are not only limited to the MLC, RCD-M and the RCD-Goma which occassionally combat eachother but also local Ugandan and Rwandan forces are involved and even fight with eachother. The problems in the rebel movements increased as all have a stake in the DRC cake and all want to profit from its mineral wealth.
The opposition in the east is a collection of groups with three large groups the MLC, RCD-M and the RCD-Goma and many other tribal groups like the Banyamulenge and small local groups with each a rather independent warlord. Sometimes they cooperate but mostly they are outright hostile towards eachother. As mentioned before they are all primarily interested in getting their share of the wealth in the country.
Kabila could withstand the opposition only by the large support it received from its supporters, Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe and the Sudan. These countries support Kabila out of their own interests and certainly not for the good of the DRC.
Angola and Namibia want to limit the operations of the UNITA, which is combatting the Angolan government in a two decade long civil war and are creating havoc in Namibia. Zimbabwe is supporting Kabila out of pure commercial interests as the Zimbabwan political and military elite received generous exploitation contracts of minerals in the DRC and they need to be protected. Sudan is supporting Kabila because Uganda is supporting the Sudanese opposition, the SPLA.
As the war continued with this strange collection of enemies and supporters, the intense fighting has decreased. The territory hold by each side has been more or less stabilised. But this does not mean an end to the fighting which became clear as all peace initiatives collapsed and no site was really willing to concede and cooperate.

The future of the DRC

The year 2001 started surprisingly, or not, with the succesful assassination of the president of the DRC, Laurent Desire Kabila. The strongman in the DRC government who could get together an alliance of supporters which were willing to support him in the struggle against the opposition, rebel movements, in the east of the country.
Laurent Desire Kabila was killed, shot, by a bodyguard. It is still uncertain which organisation is behind the person who killed him. There are several rumors, conspiracy theories, which are blaming the rebel forces in the east of the country, or the former political allies like the CNRD, or see an involvement of Rwanda, Angola and even the CIA or Belgium as the former colonial ruler. So there is no certainty at the moment.
The death of Kabila could have large implications for the country. His death could start a fundamental change in the country as no man in his government will most likely not be able to control the government forces and keep the alliance together. The alliance of supporters are getting more and more problems at home and might be tempted to witdraw their support. And this would quickly mean the end of the current government.
The successor of Kabila is at the moment his son Joseph Kabila, which was already the Chief of Staff of the armed forces. Joseph Kabila will be the next president but it is uncertain if he will remain very long president. He has the support of the other cabinet members, all close friends and appointees of Laurent Desire Kabila, and the armed forces. But the support is not certain as some stronger cabinet members and some military commanders do not fully support Joseph Kabila. Some of them have ambitions of their own for a higher position, read the presidency.
The opposition parties in Kinshasa like the Democratic Opposition for Congo, who still believe in a peaceful change to a democratic Congo and the opposition, rebel, groups in the east do however oppose Joseph Kabila and are not willing to accept him as the new president. They will at the moment not use the current situation to actively fight Joseph Kabila but in the future they certainly will.
The survival of Joseph Kabila depends on the support he can get from within the government and if the foreign supporters are willing to continue the support they have been given in the recent years. The Angolan, Namibian and Zimbabwan support is of the utmost importance to survive against the political and rebel opposition in the country. If one or more end their support, withdraw their forces, the chance of survival of the Kabila government is as good as non-existent.
Momentarily, Angola and Zimbabwe are committed to the alliance and the artificial stability in the areas they control. They do not have another option on the very short term. Angola and Zimbawe even increased the number of forces in the DRC to avoid any resistance, uprising, in the DRC during the transistion of power and ofcourse to secure their position.

The Kabila alliance

The three most important supporters as Angola, Zimbabwe and Namibia. The Kabila government could probably survive the withdrawal of Namibia but if one of the other two would end the support the end of the Kabila government is just a matter of time.
The Kabila government is highly dependent on the support of Angola, considerable Angolan armed forces are deployed in the DRC. Geographical conditions and the activities of the Angolan forces stabilised the expansion of the rebel forces, stopped them from moving further to the west.
The Angolan government was/is however not very satisfied with the Kabila government as they did not, could not, curtail the activities of the UNITA in the DRC. The Angolan armed forces do their best to control the UNITA in the DRC but they are in a sense overstretched. Operating on two battlefields in the DRC, first, against the rebels in the east and second, against the UNITA in the west, is to much for the quantity of forces deployed in Angola. Especially as it gets ever more difficult to send and maintain the forces in the DRC and at the same time keep the pressure on the UNITA in Angola proper.
The Angolan government is therefore at the moment busy to reassess the current situation. It might be more effective to withdraw their forces from the DRC and instead use them to increase the pressure on the UNITA in country and to improve the control on the border, e.g. closing the border.
The Zimbabwan support for the Kabila government is equally important as they stopped the rebel advance to the south-west. The number of Zimbabwan armed forces in the DRC is about as large as the Angolan contribution. Around 14.000 men, including a small number of light attack aircraft, are deployed in the DRC. These forces are necessary to protect the Zimbabwan commercial interests in the DRC. The Zimbabwan involvement is absolutely necessary as if they would withdraw the rebel movements could win and the Zimbabwan interests would be lost.
Zimbabwe has however a number of internal problems which could mean the end of the support towards the DRC. The economy of Zimabawe is close to bankruptcy and the dissatisfaction in the country is growing by the day. The people are dissatisfied because of the bad economic situation and because of the high cost of the involvement, in money and casualties, in the DRC. The anger is increased because the Zimbabwan involvement is largely to protect the interests of the political and military elite of the country, so there are not really national interests at stake.
The Namibian support for the Kabila government is the smallest of the three, approximately 2.000 men are deployed in the DRC. The Namibian armed forces are essentially in support of the Angolan forces. Their importance is therefore, militarily, small but politically significant as it is another voice, vote, in favor of the Kabila government. The Namibian deployment is also less certain as Namibia is facing some internal problems with UNITA forces crossing into Namibia and an independent movement, at the moment more or less under control, in the Caprivi strip.
On the short term all the countries in the Kabila alliance are willing to continue their support not withstanding de internal difficulties in these countries. They do so as the other options look to be less secure and /or profitable.
The Kabila government is pressured to maintain the Angolan and Zimbabwan support and they will do the utmost to keep that support. The death of Laurent Desire Kabila will not make it any easier and the increasing internal problems of all three make the continuation of the support uncertain and out of control of the Kabila government. They can do very little than to wait, hope and promiss that the Kabila government will do everything possible to fulfil the wishes of Angola and Zimbabwe. The only advantage of the Kabila government is that Angola and Zimbabwe have already invested so much in the DRC adventure and have none viable other option on the short term.

The opposition

The oppostion to the Kabila government can be divided in two groups, the democrats who mostly use peacefull means to introduce change in the DRC and the more dangerous oppostion, rebel, groups in the east of the country who are fighting to receive a better position in the DRC.
The political opposition can be controlled as long as they are unable to rally massive support in the population. The death of Laurent Desire Kabila, which was seen at the start as the hero, liberator, of the Congolese people but turned out to be just like his predecessor Mobuto with just another name was able to keep the dissatisfied populaton under control but his son Joseph does not has his father's fame to do the same and he will be much more busy in keeping his enemies in the cabinet, army and party under control. There are to many ambitious people looking at the presidency.
The only advantage of Joseph Kabila is that none of them has the personality to quickly take over control in the country. It will take some diplomacy and time for a candidate to get enough support to take over power.
The rumor, true or not true is not important, that Joseph has a Tutsi mother could be equally damaging for the presidency of Joseph Kabila as the Tutsis are far from being popular in the DRC. This fact could be especially benificial for the political opposition to gain support in the population.
The rebel groups in the east pose however a bigger threat to the Kabila government as they have the potential to eliminate the Kabila government. The advantage of the Kabila alliance is that the internal problems within the rebel groups will weaken the rebel's case and the strong presence of Angolan and Zimbabwan armed forces will make any advance of the rebel groups very unlikely but they are still to strong to be defeated by the Kabila government even with the support of Angola and Zimbabwe.
A change in the current situation, a defeat of the rebel movements, is unlikely as Angola and Zimbabwe are not really inclined to support a large offensive operation in the east as their objectives, controlling the UNITA and protecting the commercial interests can be done from the territory they already control.

Future prospects for the DRC

The future of the DRC is very uncertain and everything seems to be possible. The rebellion in the east of the country, the large presence of foreign forces on DRC soil, Ugandan, Rwandan, Burundi, Zimbabwan, Angolan and Namibian armed forces, the political organisations in Kinshasa, the former allies of Kabila which have been in one or the other way treated unfair by Kabila in the quest for power and the power struggle for the position of the presidency make the country very unstable.
This instability could result in four possible scenarios but this is dependent on the transition of power in Kinshasa and are highly dependent on the level of support from Angola and Zimbabwe. These two countries are the linchpin to the future of the DRC. If they decide the involvement has become to expensive or it is not viable anymore it will mean the end as the DRC as we know it today.
Firstly, the situation will remain the same with Joseph Kabila as president with the support of Angola and Zimbabwe. This will demand that Joseph Kabila is able to subdue the internal opposition in the government and the political opposition organisations.
Secondly, Joseph Kabila will be removed from the presidency and another minister or general is able to receive enough support, including Angola and Zimbabwe, to continue the battle against the rebellious east.
Thirdly, the power struggle for the presidency is taking longer, the infighting increases and the political opposition in Kinshasa can rally support of the masses.
This will mean the end of the current government, a weakening of the fight in the east and a reassesment of the support of Angola and Zimbabwe. Angola and Zimbabwe, considering the internal situation in Angola and Zimbabwe, would then probably witdraw or they might lessen the support to the level just enough to protect their own interests. To continue a fight without any Congolese partners could be very dangerous and unproductive for Angola and Zimbabwe. The attitude of the rebel movements in the east and the new president will then be decisive in the DRC. A military advance from the east or a diplomatic solution is than possible.
And fourthly, there could be a longer struggle for power in Kinshasa, Angola and Zimbabwe might withdraw or lessen their support, out of internal and external considerations, and the rebel movements in the east start creating three new countries in the territory they control. This scenario is likely if the rebel organisations in the east are not able because of the troubles between eachother to exploit the weakness in Kinshasa, e.g. to advance further to the west and if the supporters of the rebel movements, Uganda and Rwanda, are satisfied with their current sphere of influence in the DRC and limit their support to the rebel organisations.
Which scenario will come through is dependent on the skills of Joseph Kabila to consolidate his position of on his successor to quickly take over control and stabilise the situation and for both to acertain the support of Angola and Zimbabwe.